Trends can be both positive and negative. Some can be downright misleading. Here are 5 horse racing tips for the Cheltenham Festival combining only the strongest trends to help you narrow down the fields in the championship races like the Gold Cup.
Check the shortlist against recommendations from the top horse racing tipsters. Find a match, and you might have found a winner.
Champion Hurdle Trends (Tuesday)
We are looking for a runner who has an official rating of 157 or more, has at least 5 wins in the formbook and has previous experience of a Group 1 event. If you can add into the mix two previous wins or more on left handed tracks and the jockey on the day having ridden the horse at least times previously, you’ve got a very strong shortlist.
Favourites have a very good record in the race and Willie Mullins and Nicky Henderson have dominated the race in recent years.
Champion Chase Trends (Wednesday)
Looking for a runner with at least a 33% winning strike rate over lifetime form should narrow the field. An official rating of 159 or greater may not narrow as much as the quality of this race just gets better and better.
Match the Champion Chase Trends with what top tipsters have to say and you should have a shortlist of just a couple of runners to choose from.
From the trainer angle, both Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have dominated proceedings recently.
Add all of that with a last time out winner in a field of 8 or less runners, and you should have your winner pencilled down.
Stayers Hurdle Trends (Thursday)
The legendary BIG BUCKS won this race 4 times in a row as an unbeatable favourite. Since then, double figure odds have not been unusual in the race for those with the ultimate stamina over hurdles.
At big prices, winners like Cole Harden, Penhill and Thistlecrack were all very much under estimated having won a top graded race previously, had no more that four outings in the same season and aged between 6-9 years old.
There is nothing better than a big priced winner to take the bookies to the cleaners.
Cheltenham Gold Cup Trends (Friday)
Start by finding runners in the Gold Cup that have had between one and five races in the same season but have not run within the last 33 days. Add to that not being a bigger price than 8/1 last time out and you will have narrowed the field, if only slightly.
Winners from the King George at Kempton, The Denman Chase at Newbury or the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown have produced winners of the Gold Cup, but also consider those who finished in the places in those races too.
Age is no place for runners in the Gold Cup, with any runner aged 10 or more having a poor record overall in recent seasons.
Talking of age…..
No Winners from the last 55 runners.
Previous experience at the Cheltenham festival is a well-known trend. A good run at a previous festival is always a good pointer, and something people use to create a shortlist of selections. However, should you be looking at any race at Cheltenham where there is a range of ages, avoid any runner that is 5 years older than the youngest in the race. There fate has been sealed before the tapes have gone up in recent years.
And of Previous Experience…
7yos Returning with Previous Winning Form
Runners aged 7 years old who have previously won at the Cheltenham festival boast a better than 30% success rate in returning to the festival and winning again.
